Wednesday, May 03, 2006
May 03, 2006
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal
TOURISM: Flier tally exceeds 4 million
March count at McCarran up 3.1 percent from year ago
REVIEW-JOURNAL
Passengers crowd Northwest Airlines’ ticket counter at McCarran International Airport in March. During the month, 4.04 million arriving and departing passengers came through at McCarran, data show.
Photo by John Gurzinski/Review-Journal File Photo
Four million and counting.
That's the number of arriving and departing passengers who trooped through McCarran International Airport in March, airport officials said Tuesday.
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The 4.04 million passenger count was the first time the Las Vegas airport topped the 4 million mark. The figure was 3.1 percent higher than the 3.9 million seen in March 2005.
Randall Walker, Clark County director of aviation, said similar monthly totals will soon become common.
"We'll have some more 4 million months this year, but then next year we may have a year where most if not all months will be 4 million," Walker said.
Southwest Airlines, traditionally the busiest carrier at the airport, again posted strong numbers. The Dallas-based carrier recorded 1.36 million passengers -- roughly one-third of the total count. Its passenger load was up 12.1 percent from March 2005.
Other major carriers at the airport saw mixed results.
America West, which still reports passenger numbers separate from US Airways despite last year's merger, recorded 640,667 passengers, a 1.1 percent drop from 647,634 of last year.
United Airlines, typically the No. 3 carrier, posted a 9.1 percent gain with 317,025 passengers in March vs. 290,695 in the same month last year.
Figures for fourth-ranked American Airlines were virtually unchanged. The Fort Worth, Texas-based carrier recorded 220,425 passengers in March, a barely perceptible increase from 220,207 last year.
But Delta Air Lines posted a major drop in March. The number of passengers for the Atlanta-based carrier still under bankruptcy protection dropped to 214,509 from 267,525 last year.
Walker said bankruptcy is behind the changes in Delta's numbers.
"They are starting to shed some of their capacity to get their costs under control," Walker said.
Walker added that Southern Nevada's hotel industry continues to drive airport growth.
"Their numbers are record numbers, (and there is a) record number of hotel rooms. And clearly that drives our demand," Walker said.
Some smaller carriers had noticeable results in March.
Las Vegas-based Allegiant Airlines recorded 125,108 passenger in March -- an 88 percent increase from 66,426 passengers in March for 2005. Air Canada checked in with 48,498 passengers in March, an increase of 154.1 percent from the 19,087 in March of last year. And Condor Airlines, a German carrier specializing in vacation packages, recorded a 137-percent increase based on 4,056 passengers this March compared with 1,708 in the same month last year.
Sun Country, however, posted less impressive numbers. The Minneapolis/St. Paul-based carrier had 39,493 passengers in March compared to 58,758 in the same month last year -- a 44.2 percent decrease.
Walker doesn't expect significant growth from major airlines.
For the year to date, McCarran's numbers are up. Through March, the airport has seen nearly 10.9 million passengers, a 5 percent increase from about 10.4 million in the first quarter of 2005.
But Walker predicted that the 5 percent growth rate won't be sustained for the rest of 2006. He said growth would average 4 percent this year, which would result in a year-end total of 46 million passengers.
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal
TOURISM: Flier tally exceeds 4 million
March count at McCarran up 3.1 percent from year ago
REVIEW-JOURNAL
Passengers crowd Northwest Airlines’ ticket counter at McCarran International Airport in March. During the month, 4.04 million arriving and departing passengers came through at McCarran, data show.
Photo by John Gurzinski/Review-Journal File Photo
Four million and counting.
That's the number of arriving and departing passengers who trooped through McCarran International Airport in March, airport officials said Tuesday.
Advertisement
The 4.04 million passenger count was the first time the Las Vegas airport topped the 4 million mark. The figure was 3.1 percent higher than the 3.9 million seen in March 2005.
Randall Walker, Clark County director of aviation, said similar monthly totals will soon become common.
"We'll have some more 4 million months this year, but then next year we may have a year where most if not all months will be 4 million," Walker said.
Southwest Airlines, traditionally the busiest carrier at the airport, again posted strong numbers. The Dallas-based carrier recorded 1.36 million passengers -- roughly one-third of the total count. Its passenger load was up 12.1 percent from March 2005.
Other major carriers at the airport saw mixed results.
America West, which still reports passenger numbers separate from US Airways despite last year's merger, recorded 640,667 passengers, a 1.1 percent drop from 647,634 of last year.
United Airlines, typically the No. 3 carrier, posted a 9.1 percent gain with 317,025 passengers in March vs. 290,695 in the same month last year.
Figures for fourth-ranked American Airlines were virtually unchanged. The Fort Worth, Texas-based carrier recorded 220,425 passengers in March, a barely perceptible increase from 220,207 last year.
But Delta Air Lines posted a major drop in March. The number of passengers for the Atlanta-based carrier still under bankruptcy protection dropped to 214,509 from 267,525 last year.
Walker said bankruptcy is behind the changes in Delta's numbers.
"They are starting to shed some of their capacity to get their costs under control," Walker said.
Walker added that Southern Nevada's hotel industry continues to drive airport growth.
"Their numbers are record numbers, (and there is a) record number of hotel rooms. And clearly that drives our demand," Walker said.
Some smaller carriers had noticeable results in March.
Las Vegas-based Allegiant Airlines recorded 125,108 passenger in March -- an 88 percent increase from 66,426 passengers in March for 2005. Air Canada checked in with 48,498 passengers in March, an increase of 154.1 percent from the 19,087 in March of last year. And Condor Airlines, a German carrier specializing in vacation packages, recorded a 137-percent increase based on 4,056 passengers this March compared with 1,708 in the same month last year.
Sun Country, however, posted less impressive numbers. The Minneapolis/St. Paul-based carrier had 39,493 passengers in March compared to 58,758 in the same month last year -- a 44.2 percent decrease.
Walker doesn't expect significant growth from major airlines.
For the year to date, McCarran's numbers are up. Through March, the airport has seen nearly 10.9 million passengers, a 5 percent increase from about 10.4 million in the first quarter of 2005.
But Walker predicted that the 5 percent growth rate won't be sustained for the rest of 2006. He said growth would average 4 percent this year, which would result in a year-end total of 46 million passengers.
May 03, 2006
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal
Mixed messages on housing
Statistics from Las Vegas may not be as strong as they appear, analyst says
By HUBBLE SMITH
REVIEW-JOURNAL
Workers build homes at Summerlin Centre off Sahara Avenue east of the Las Vegas Beltway, with Red Rock Resort in the background. A report shows that sales of new homes are up 18.6 percent in the first three months of 2006 when compared with a year ago.
Photo by K.M. Cannon.
Click image for enlargement.
Las Vegas housing expert Dennis Smith is seeing mixed signals in the local market, which seems to be cooling like the national market.
Smith, president of Home Builders Research, counted 3,632 new home sales in March, bringing the first-quarter total to 9,366, an 18.6 percent increase from the same period a year ago.
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Activity was also strong in March with 3,022 building permits pulled. The year-to-date total of 7,773 represents a 16.6 percent increase from last year, still short of the record 9,149 permits pulled in first quarter of 2004.
Pretty impressive, Smith said, but those numbers don't tell the whole story.
"To suggest this translates into a wonderful, booming housing market is wrong," he said. "Let's not get carried away."
Those in the home-building industry know that the permits are a "carry-over" from the last half of 2005, when builders encountered delays getting through the entitlement process, Smith said.
"Ask any builder. There's been slowdowns for a lot of builders in getting new projects started," he said. "Some of the permits that have been pulled this year should have been processed three to six months earlier."
The resale market is also showing declining numbers. There were 10,914 existing homes sold through the first three months of the year, down 14 percent from the same quarter a year ago.
The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported a 10.4 percent decline in home sales in January, a 12.3 percent decline in February and a 19.4 percent decline in March.
"For months, we have been saying that the resale segment would struggle in 2006. We still believe this will be the case," Smith said.
Realtors reported more than 17,000 listings on the MLS in March, a record, though they're saying 64 percent of the houses are selling within 60 days.
Smith has his doubts.
"We can drive through many neighborhoods and see listing signs that haven't changed for months," he said. "One statistic we haven't seen in print anywhere is how many of the active listings are vacant. Care to guess? Let's just say it is probably more than you think."
He calls it "investor hangover" from the last couple of years.
Resale prices have been stagnant since August. The March median of $285,000 is 10.9 percent more than a year ago and will probably show double-digit increases for the next four months. After that, homeowners can expect gains of 2 percent to 4 percent, Smith said.
The slowdown in the housing market is showing up in other areas.
Fewer home loans are being approved in the "slam dunk" category as lenders tighten the screws in a real estate market with narrowing margins of error, said Mike Ela, president of California-based Web site HomeSmartReports.com.
Slam-dunk loans are those provided with a minimum of underwriting fuss when applications are subjected to collateral review.
While slam-dunk mortgage applications account for 66.5 percent of the volume nationwide, there are significant variations from state to state. Slam-dunk home loans range from 44.1 percent in Colorado to 84.3 percent in Massachusetts. Nevada is 11th-highest at 76.9 percent.
The result of increased lender scrutiny is that mortgage risk has declined by 34.8 percent during the past year.
"As appreciation rates come down, fewer mistakes will be submerged by a rapid rise in home values," Ela said. "There may be some added caution because federal regulators have told the lending industry to be more careful, especially when it comes to loans in the so-called sub-prime category."
A report from Hanley Wood Market Intelligence noted that new home sales in March jumped 13 percent to a seasonally adjusted 1.21 million units after a large drop the month before.
Susquehanna Financial Group home building analyst Stephen East said he's relieved that home sales in March reversed much of February's malaise. However, the first quarter was still down about 8 percent year-to-year.
"Concerning inventory, trends showed some improvement in certain respects, but continued its absolute level climb," East said. "A smoothed view of recent months continues to show a measured slowing in housing, roughly at the midpoint of what many market pundits are predicting for 2006."
The Federal Reserve raised a key benchmark used to set interest rates for the 15th consecutive time since June 2004.
That means consumers with a home equity line of credit have probably seen their monthly payments increase sharply as rates have moved higher over the past few years, said Bryant Evans, portfolio manager at Cozad Asset Management in Champaign, Ill.
The average 7.75 percent rate for home equity loans could reach or exceed 8 percent by the time the Fed is done raising interest rates, he said.
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal
Mixed messages on housing
Statistics from Las Vegas may not be as strong as they appear, analyst says
By HUBBLE SMITH
REVIEW-JOURNAL
Workers build homes at Summerlin Centre off Sahara Avenue east of the Las Vegas Beltway, with Red Rock Resort in the background. A report shows that sales of new homes are up 18.6 percent in the first three months of 2006 when compared with a year ago.
Photo by K.M. Cannon.
Click image for enlargement.
Las Vegas housing expert Dennis Smith is seeing mixed signals in the local market, which seems to be cooling like the national market.
Smith, president of Home Builders Research, counted 3,632 new home sales in March, bringing the first-quarter total to 9,366, an 18.6 percent increase from the same period a year ago.
Advertisement
Activity was also strong in March with 3,022 building permits pulled. The year-to-date total of 7,773 represents a 16.6 percent increase from last year, still short of the record 9,149 permits pulled in first quarter of 2004.
Pretty impressive, Smith said, but those numbers don't tell the whole story.
"To suggest this translates into a wonderful, booming housing market is wrong," he said. "Let's not get carried away."
Those in the home-building industry know that the permits are a "carry-over" from the last half of 2005, when builders encountered delays getting through the entitlement process, Smith said.
"Ask any builder. There's been slowdowns for a lot of builders in getting new projects started," he said. "Some of the permits that have been pulled this year should have been processed three to six months earlier."
The resale market is also showing declining numbers. There were 10,914 existing homes sold through the first three months of the year, down 14 percent from the same quarter a year ago.
The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported a 10.4 percent decline in home sales in January, a 12.3 percent decline in February and a 19.4 percent decline in March.
"For months, we have been saying that the resale segment would struggle in 2006. We still believe this will be the case," Smith said.
Realtors reported more than 17,000 listings on the MLS in March, a record, though they're saying 64 percent of the houses are selling within 60 days.
Smith has his doubts.
"We can drive through many neighborhoods and see listing signs that haven't changed for months," he said. "One statistic we haven't seen in print anywhere is how many of the active listings are vacant. Care to guess? Let's just say it is probably more than you think."
He calls it "investor hangover" from the last couple of years.
Resale prices have been stagnant since August. The March median of $285,000 is 10.9 percent more than a year ago and will probably show double-digit increases for the next four months. After that, homeowners can expect gains of 2 percent to 4 percent, Smith said.
The slowdown in the housing market is showing up in other areas.
Fewer home loans are being approved in the "slam dunk" category as lenders tighten the screws in a real estate market with narrowing margins of error, said Mike Ela, president of California-based Web site HomeSmartReports.com.
Slam-dunk loans are those provided with a minimum of underwriting fuss when applications are subjected to collateral review.
While slam-dunk mortgage applications account for 66.5 percent of the volume nationwide, there are significant variations from state to state. Slam-dunk home loans range from 44.1 percent in Colorado to 84.3 percent in Massachusetts. Nevada is 11th-highest at 76.9 percent.
The result of increased lender scrutiny is that mortgage risk has declined by 34.8 percent during the past year.
"As appreciation rates come down, fewer mistakes will be submerged by a rapid rise in home values," Ela said. "There may be some added caution because federal regulators have told the lending industry to be more careful, especially when it comes to loans in the so-called sub-prime category."
A report from Hanley Wood Market Intelligence noted that new home sales in March jumped 13 percent to a seasonally adjusted 1.21 million units after a large drop the month before.
Susquehanna Financial Group home building analyst Stephen East said he's relieved that home sales in March reversed much of February's malaise. However, the first quarter was still down about 8 percent year-to-year.
"Concerning inventory, trends showed some improvement in certain respects, but continued its absolute level climb," East said. "A smoothed view of recent months continues to show a measured slowing in housing, roughly at the midpoint of what many market pundits are predicting for 2006."
The Federal Reserve raised a key benchmark used to set interest rates for the 15th consecutive time since June 2004.
That means consumers with a home equity line of credit have probably seen their monthly payments increase sharply as rates have moved higher over the past few years, said Bryant Evans, portfolio manager at Cozad Asset Management in Champaign, Ill.
The average 7.75 percent rate for home equity loans could reach or exceed 8 percent by the time the Fed is done raising interest rates, he said.
